{"id":1415,"date":"2017-08-14T11:08:27","date_gmt":"2017-08-14T10:08:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/?p=1415"},"modified":"2018-04-14T11:09:31","modified_gmt":"2018-04-14T10:09:31","slug":"44-months-to-go-until-national-nhs-costs-will-have-been-reduced-by-1-83-billion-every-month-august-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/?p=1415","title":{"rendered":"44 Months To Go Until \u00a0National NHS Costs Will Have Been Reduced by \u00a31.83 \u00a0Billion Every Month &#8211; August 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Issue: 51<\/b><\/p>\n<p><b>August 2017<\/b><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This occasional newsletter is researched, written and edited by a group of concerned residents in Ealing, West London who want to preserve our NHS. We view the wholesale engagement of private, for-profit healthcare service suppliers as unnecessary, profligate and dangerous. Increased financial funding is what is needed in our NHS \u2013 not financial cuts, closure of vital services or privatisation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>44 Months To Go Until \u00a0National NHS Costs Will Have Been Reduced by \u00a31.83 \u00a0Billion Every Month<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a322 billion annual cost savings beginning in the Financial Year ending 31 March 2022 is the ACS\/STP\/Footprints\/Simon Stevens FYFV\/NHS England\/UK Government target.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The first eight pioneer STP\/Accountable Care Systems (ACSs), which will deliver these monumental savings, don\u2019t commence until 1 April 2018. The other 36 STP\/ACSs will clearly have shorter grant-aided pioneering periods until they begin the cost saving for real commencing 1 April 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ACSs (ACOs generically) are completely untested in England. The concept (originating in the USA) is after all only some 10 years old. ACOs have tended to be much smaller than those about to be attempted here. Cost savings results in the USA have been mixed \u2013 as have ACO experiences in Spain and New Zealand. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Does anyone actually believe reaching this \u00a322 billion cost saving target in FY 2021\/22 is in any way possible? Isn\u2019t this a massive \u2018throw of the dice\u2019?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In NHS NW London a much less ambitious cost saving project (healthcare only \u2013 no social care or healthcare and social care integration) has been unable to identify any cost savings whatsoever (FOI response 30 May 2017). This project, \u2018Shaping a Healthier Future\u2019 was designed in 2012 and has been in its implementation phase for over four years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Who actually believed that such a target is\/was desirable?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What is the point of creating publicly paraded performance targets which are \u2018unhittable\u2019?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Just what do these impossible-to-attain financial targets say about us as a nation, say about this government and say about all of us? \u2018Cloud Cuckoo Land\u2019 comes to mind. What kind of inspiration or role model is this for our children?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It seems to me to be a form of national self harming. Impossible goals in a society being increasingly populated by the poor, the disadvantaged, the home-alone elderly, the physically ill and disabled, the sick, the mentally ill and disabled and the vulnerable who are all finding daily quality of life increasingly impossible.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A terrible rumour is emerging from the ashes of Grenfell Tower. Allegedly, 40 people have been found dead in just one flat. Now this could have been a party in progress or it could have been that the flat was \u2018home\u2019 for 40 people. If the latter is true just how healthy was that? How is it that the Tenant Management Organisation (TMO), an arm of the Local Authority, allowed this density of living to exist? No doubt there was planning guidance which was aimed at stopping this. But that clearly did not work. Yet another \u2018pie in the sky\u2019aspiration.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No point in rules or edicts which are not able to be implemented.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The time for reform is now. But it won\u2019t happen by creating and publicly trumpeting futile and unrealistic plans to reduce our annual national healthcare costs by 20% starting in just 44 months time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A mentally and physically healthy society is a productive one. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Ealing CCG Enters \u2018The Twilight Zone\u2019 by Expecting Already Stretched Ealing GPs To Deliver The Long Awaited 2012 SaHF \u2018Out of Hospital\u2019 Services<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ms Neha Unadkat, Deputy Managing Director Primary Care &amp; Integration, Ealing Clinical Commissioning Group and Ms Tessa Sandall, Managing Director, Ealing Clinical Commissioning Group have jointly authored a July 2017 ECCG Business Case for Primary Care.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In 2012, NHS North West London launched its \u2018Shaping a Healthier Future\u2019 (SaHF) programme. SaHF was\/is all about cost savings allied to (page 8) \u2018\u2026changes that will improve care both in hospitals and the community\u2026\u2019. Page 36 of the SaHF explains \u2018Proposals for delivering care outside hospitals\u2019. SaHF, we were told on page 11, was \u2018..at least a three year (programme)\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Well\u2026here we are almost five years later and reading yet again about proposals for delivering care (that was in 2012 delivered in hospitals) Out of Hospitals (OOH). <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here are some headlines from the 115 pager:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0\u2018\u2026improve the resilience of general practice..\u2019<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0Delivery of 23 standards (!)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0GPs will deliver paediatric phlebotomy (drawing blood from children), winter resilience and dementia contracts and \u2018Out of Hours\u2019 services <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u2018The Strategic Commissioning Framework for Primary Care Transformation in London\u2019 lists 17(!) service specifications for GPs<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The bottom line is that GPs, for a bit more cash no doubt, will be expected to fill the huge gaps which will open up as beds and staff are cut in hospitals. This is going to be a disaster. Even the ECCG business case admits that:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018Primary care in Ealing is under unprecedented strain, with a rise in the number of appointments and increasing numbers of practices who report that their current workload is unmanageable or unsustainable\u2026the number of registered patients per FTE GP in Ealing is significantly higher than the London and England averages\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018The current GP workforce in Ealing is ageing and facing a \u2018retirement bubble\u2019 which has the potential to put the system under a strain\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But a bomb shell exploded at the Ealing Council Health and Adult Social Services Standing Scrutiny Panel meeting on 26 July 2017. Out of the blue and buried inside the 422 pages of printed material for the meeting is on page 287 \u2013 \u2018Commissioning a Lead Provider for Out of Hospital Care\u2019. This is just for Ealing and the lead provider will take over in April 2018 WITH A TEN YEAR CONTRACT.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Now there are pages and pages of stuff on this but being brutal the question has to be asked:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Who or what mandated a ten year contract? <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This duration is new to the Ealing healthcare scene. New GP surgery contracts , the \u00a0ECCG contract , and the Healthwatch Ealing contract do not enjoy ten year tenures. My contention is that this ten year component has either come from Government or from private healthcare suppliers. If it\u2019s Government the only future show in town will be an Accountable Care System (ACS) vehicle for OOH. Services. If the ten year requirement came from private healthcare suppliers it\u2019s likely that exploratory talks have already begun with the likes of Virgin, HCI, BMI, Ramsay, Spire, Nuffield, United Health, UKSH, Care UK, or Circle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s going to be very messy\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>NHS Bosses Are Still Maintaining \u00a0That Ealing Hospital is Not Closing<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Our regional NHS bosses are clearly still confused about the massive differences between the well established concept of a full service hospital i.e. a District General Hospital (DGH) and the newly invented NHS North West London concept of a \u2018Local Hospital\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On the Ealing Hospital site, where the major development activities are the building of residential tower blocks, we still have a DGH. DGH features on site include adult A&amp;E, Intensive Care consultants and beds, Operating Theatres and a total of 309 hospital beds. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">By 2021, NHS bosses tell us that Ealing \u2018Local Hospital\u2019 will replace Ealing DGH. To be brutally honest keeping to time is not an NHS speciality so that date might just slip or it all might come about earlier. This \u2018Local Hospital\u2019 will apparently house GPs and nurses and offer some diagnostic, therapeutic, out-patient and day care services. It will offer an expanded \u2018Frail\/Elderly\u2019 service for which 50 hospital beds will be available. That will be the sum total of beds in this New Age glorified First Aid Post.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The NHS has produced a terribly disingenuous leaflet dated July 2017 entitled \u2018What You Need to Know About Ealing Hospital\u2019. The scale of deception is so great that a detailed critique is probably unnecessary. I will distribute a scan of this leaflet when I distribute this newsletter.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Why can\u2019t NHS bosses have the guts to tell the truth?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The much respected Leader of Hammersmith &amp; Fulham Council Councillor Stephen Cowan recently summed up this semantic confusion between DGH and Local Hospital by stating:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018It\u2019s like having your home demolished only to have it replaced with a shed. And being told it is a \u2018local home\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>15 Favoured Sustainability and Transformation Funds (STPs) Get \u00a3325 Million in Grants To Help With Their Building \u00a0Works<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On 19 July 2017, the Government and NHS England announced that 15 STPs will share \u00a3325 million for building works. The biggest winners include the STPs for Dorset, Greater Manchester, Cumbria, Derbyshire, Leicester\/Leicestershire &amp; Rutland, Nottinghamshire and Milton Keynes\/ Bedfordshire &amp; Luton. Here are some summary details of some of these STP grant winners: <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Dorset STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recently granted Accountable Care System (ACS) grant-aided status, Dorset STP will get cash for building Urgent Care facilities.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Greater Manchester STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another recent ACS grant winner, gets \u00a350 million for concentrating facilities for urgent and emergency care at four hub sites across Greater Manchester. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Cumbria STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Cumbria has won \u00a330 to \u00a350 million to build a brand new Cancer care unit at Cumberland Infirmary in Carlisle.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Derbyshire STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Up to \u00a330 million is granted \u00a0to \u2018create an Urgent Care Village\u2019 at the Royal Derby Hospital with GP services, a frailty clinic and mental health facilities\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Leicester, Leicestershire &amp; Rutland STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a330 to \u00a350 million for a 15 bed in-patient unit at Glenfield General Hospital to improve children\u2019s and young people\u2019s mental health service integration with other care services. Also Intensive Care beds expansion at University Hospitals of Leicester..<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Nottinghamshire STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another ACS grant-aided area &#8211; \u00a310 to \u00a315 million for across the board service expansion.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Milton Keynes, Bedfordshire &amp; Luton STP<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Yet another ACS grant receiver, this STP grant is for building a new Primary Care hub. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Worringly there are no explicit references to cash for building work associated with social care or the integration of healthcare and social care. Regionally there must be a concern that NHS North West London\u2019s request for \u00a3513 million for building works features nowhere in this Government\/NHSE announcement. The fact that the NHS NWL cash demand was\/is under the aegis of its 2012 \u00a0\u2018Shaping a Healthier Future\u2019 (SaHF) project will probably cut no ice with the bean counters. This is probably in spite of recent NHS evidence that NHS NWL is one of the more financially prudent STP footprints.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Secret NHS Cost-Cutting Plans Labelled \u2018Capped Expenditure Process\u2019 (CEP) Will Ration Care, Cut Staff Numbers, Close Hospital Wards and Possibly Hospitals<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As part of a new national savings drive, the CEP will withhold grant-funding to those NHS bodies which fail to meet financial targets. Service shrinkage, extended waiting times, job losses, and bed\/ward\/hospital closure will surely follow.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018The Guardian\u2019 quotes the content of a leaked document which states that the CEP might lead to service reduction\/losses at The Royal Free Hospital and Great Ormond Street Children\u2019s Hospital. North Middlesex Hospital in Enfield is at risk of downgrade or closure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>NHS Still Rated the Best, Safest and Most Affordable Healthcare Service in the Developed World<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Commonwealth Fund (CF) health think tank has, for the second consecutive time, found the UK to have the best healthcare service in the developed world. This brilliance is even more remarkable given that at 9<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">th<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> out of 11 nations the percentage of GDP we spend on healthcare is only 9.9%. The US spends 16.6% of its GDP on healthcare and France 11.4%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the 11 individual categories UK came top in \u2018safest care\u2019, \u2018care processes\u2019, \u2018affordable care\u2019 and \u2018most equitable care\u2019. On the bad news front we came 10<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">th<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> out of 11 in \u2018healthcare outcomes\u2019. Survival rates for breast, bowel cancer and strokes are relatively very poor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Someone Leaks the NHS Guidance to the Eight \u00a0\u2018Starter\u2019 Accountable Care Systems (ACSs)<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The authoritative Health Service Journal (HSJ) has got hold of a draft NHS guidance document for the eight pioneer, grant-aided ACSs. ACSs will be the future delivery vehicles for STPs. In just 44 months time an ACS world throughout England will deliver \u00a322 billion savings on national, annual NHS costs\u2026\u2026.. The phrase \u2018pigs will fly\u2019 comes to mind.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The guidance is laced with US management consultancy jargon. It requires the ACS pioneers to \u2018assertively moderate demand growth\u2019. I guess if you were talking about this in the pub you might express this as \u2018don\u2019t treat all those in need\u2019. Also mentioned are \u2018potentially ratings\u2019. Understanding what that means is way beyond both my Intelligence Quotient and my Emotional Quotient.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Each ACS must pass various tests before February 2018 in order to get its grant cash and to attain \u2018Full ACS Status\u2019 as of 1 April 2018. But surely \u2018Full ACS Status\u2019 must mean an absence of grant-aid. Such stripping of financial support to the \u2018ACS Super 8\u2019 isn\u2019t envisioned, apparently, till 2021. So, with respect, this \u2018VIP\u2019 type status is a case of form over content.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ACS s will only get their money if they identify who is \u2018accountable\u2019 at the ACS for \u2018delivery and value for money\u2019 and who will manage \u2018financial; and outcome oversight\u2019. ACSs must meet performance targets for cancer, urgent and emergency care, primary care and mental health. This will be interesting to behold, as currently NHS Trusts are largely consistently failing to meet existing performance standards. However I don\u2019t know what the ACS performance standards are\/will be.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the HSJ review of the guidance there are no references to social care service, social care performance targets and healthcare\/ social care integration. This must be a concern for all of us.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NHS Improvement will appoint a \u2018lead regional director\u2019 for each ACS. More jobs for the boys (and girls) no doubt. ACSs will soon surely have to become self-standing (not grant aided), private cost-slashing consortia with huge 10\/15 year contracts, Unless primary legislation is enacted through Parliament, surely these \u00a3billion+ \u00a0turnover corporates will just ignore some regional pen pusher \u2018boss\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>The First Managing Director Appointed to Run an ACS<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Health Services Journal (HSJ) Wendy Saviour has been appointed and is in post now as Managing Director, Nottingham Accountable Care System. Her role and status is somewhat similar to that of \u00a0Jon Rouse who is Director of the Greater Manchester devolution area (so called Devo-Manc Health). HSJ say a similar \u2018arrangement is being developed int Surrey Heartlands\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ms Saviour and Mr Rous were appointed and are employed by NHS England. This is a far cry from the grandiose ACO\/ACP intentions trumpeted variously earlier this year and in 2016. What was envisioned then was the formation of private consortia of public bodies (NHS and Local Authorities), private organisations (GP Federations and private healthcare\/social care companies), charities and voluntary bodies. These consortia\/partnerships\/networks would clearly have management boards who one might have thought would have procured their own CEO\/MD. But no\u2026.we have micro-management from the healthcare side of the care institutions. So much for devolution and local, regional autonomy. Does NHSE and the Department of Health really believe in this ACO\/ACS approach? Is this the solution mapped out five years ago at the World Economic Forum in Davos? Or is there at least one more iteration of the CCG\/STP\/ACO\/ACP\/ACS merry-go-round yet to come?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Could Greater Manchester (Devo-Manc Health) become a Cost-Cutting, Care Services\u2019 Improvement, Healthcare\/Social Care Integration ,STP\/ACS Success Story?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I visit my home city on 15 -17 August 2017 to find out. Full details in our September 2017 newsletter. If anyone has any supporting evidence or even gossip on this topic, please email me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>CHPI Report Warns That Implementing STPs Will Mean Lack of Appropriate Staff and Volumes, Too Few Beds, Poor Elective Care and Care in General, and Dysfunctional Healthcare\/Social Care Integration<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vivek Kotecha has authored an impressive Centre for Health and Public Interest (CHPI) report on likely STP outcomes, which was published in June 2017.. His background makes impressive reading in itself. Vivek has a BSc Economics (Hons) from LSE and is a Chartered Accountant. He worked as a manager at NHS Monitor and NHS Improvement, prior to which he was a management consultant with Deloitte for four years. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vivek paints a worrying assessment on the impact that implementing the 44 STPs is likely to have on staff, beds, Elective care, Public Health, across the board healthcare, and the integration of healthcare and social care.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s a fairly quick read at 18 pages. Some of his conclusions:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2018There will be fewer hospital beds per population, fewer GPs and GP surgeries, more patients will be seen by less qualified staff, the availability of treatments for non-emergency conditions will be more limited and the eligibility thresholds for others will be raised. Rationing non-emergency care, the withdrawal of services and\/or reducing cost by reducing quality will be the only options. There is strong risk that NHS care will diminish in both availability and quality. The risks to patient safety from overcrowding and understaffing will get worse. The situation will be aggravated if the reorganisation of services is itself insufficiently funded or poorly implemented\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vivek makes no reference to the STP delivery \u2018mechanism\u2019 \u2013 Accountable Care Systems (ACSs). NHS bosses are seemingly keen to keep ACS deliberations under the radar and many STPs make scant reference to them. With 1 April 2018 start dates for the eight \u2018phoney\u2019 grant-aided, four year ACSs and some other STP ACSs (theoretically), it will be some time before \u2018forensic\u2019 research can reveal whether ACSs could improve care <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">and <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">achieve significant cost savings.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More at http:\/\/chpi.org.uk<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>The 2014 NHS Five Year Forward View (FYFV): Do the Numbers Add Up?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In May 2017, CHPI\u2019s Vivek Kotecha brilliantly and forensically analysed the 2014 FYFV financial figures and could not get them to add up. The financial modeling for all this is mind bogglingly complex for non-bean counters. First he analysed the \u2018funding gap\u2019 (popularly touted as \u00a330 billion by 2020\/21 \u2013 but according to Vivek it could be much higher than this) in the context of additional government funding and productivity and efficiency savings. Whether the funding gap can be closed or not, Vivek puts down to whether the expectation of projected 2-3% NHS annual efficiency savings are realistic. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This itself relies on some key assumptions, which are:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0There will be sufficient funding for transforming service delivery<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0The growth in healthcare provided in acute hospitals will decline<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0Hospitals will make 2% cost savings every year<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0NHS pay restraint for permanent staff will continue<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ The total cost of agency staff will fall by 4% a year<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ \u00a0Investments in Public Health and illness prevention will help to cut costs<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">+ The provision of social care will prevent patients being unnecessarily admitted to and kept in hospital.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">He then goes on to examine what the implications are for the NHS if the above assumptions on closing the financial gap are wrong. His conclusion is:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2018\u2026 the STPs have to assume that the overall calculations made by NHS England within which they are operating are realistic \u2013 that the numbers add up. If this is not the case the plans will not work. Instead of the intended improvement in care there will be a decline in quality and access and a growing risk that services will collapse. Our analysis suggests that the numbers do not add up\u2019.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More at http:\/\/chpi.org.uk<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><b>Lack of Ventilators and Nurses Is Causing Too Many COP Deaths<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A report by The National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death has revealed that NHS patients needing Non-Invasive Intervention (NIV) oxygen are receiving \u2018shocking\u2019 levels of care.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">353 NHS patients \u2013 many with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary (COP) disease \u2013 were subjected to in-depth examination. The results show that four out of five patients were receiving \u2018less than good\u2019 care.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NIV oxygen is meant to reduce the risk of dying from 20% to 10%. However it\u2019s \u2018really troubling\u2019 that the UK death rate is 34% &#8211; whereas in Spain it\u2019s 18% and in France it\u2019s 10%. Two out of five hospitals at some point have been unable to cope with NIV demand because of lack of a ventilator. Fewer than half of hospitals are able to provide the staffing ratios of one nurse to two NIV patients. Research also revealed that doctors were often \u2018really poor\u2019 at documenting patient use of NIV oxygen \u2013 probably because of under staffing. <\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More at www.ncepod.org.uk<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Issue: 51 August 2017 &nbsp; This occasional newsletter is researched, written and edited by a group of concerned residents in Ealing, West London who want to preserve our NHS. We view the wholesale engagement of private, for-profit healthcare service suppliers as unnecessary, profligate and dangerous. Increased financial funding is what is needed in our [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1243,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1415","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png","uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",1024,512,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2-150x150.png",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2-300x150.png",300,150,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2-768x384.png",640,320,true],"large":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2-1024x512.png",640,320,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",1024,512,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",1024,512,false],"td_0x420":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",840,420,false],"td_80x60":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",80,40,false],"td_100x75":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",100,50,false],"td_180x135":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",180,90,false],"td_238x178":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",238,119,false],"td_265x198":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",265,133,false],"td_300x160":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",300,150,false],"td_300x194":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",300,150,false],"td_300x350":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",300,150,false],"td_341x220":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",341,171,false],"td_341x400":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",341,171,false],"td_511x400":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",511,256,false],"td_537x360":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",537,269,false],"td_640x0":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",640,320,false],"td_640x350":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",640,320,false],"td_681x0":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",681,341,false],"td_681x400":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",681,341,false],"td_741x486":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",741,371,false],"td_1021x580":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",1021,511,false],"mailpoet_newsletter_max":["https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Traveling-in-London-2.png",1024,512,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Eric Leach","author_link":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/?author=2"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"&nbsp; Issue: 51 August 2017 &nbsp; This occasional newsletter is researched, written and edited by a group of concerned residents in Ealing, West London who want to preserve our NHS. We view the wholesale engagement of private, for-profit healthcare service suppliers as unnecessary, profligate and dangerous. Increased financial funding is what is needed in our&hellip;","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1415"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1416,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415\/revisions\/1416"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ealingsaveournhs.org.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}